{"id":18621,"date":"2014-03-30T17:02:26","date_gmt":"2014-03-30T15:02:26","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.brennerbasisdemokratie.eu\/?p=18621"},"modified":"2024-01-26T14:48:38","modified_gmt":"2024-01-26T13:48:38","slug":"sonntagsfrage-alcune-considerazioni","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.brennerbasisdemokratie.eu\/?p=18621","title":{"rendered":"Sonntagsfrage: Alcune considerazioni."},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Il quotidiano sudtirolese <em>Tageszeitung <\/em>ieri <a title=\"TAZ: Exklusiv \u2014 Die Umfrage.\" href=\"https:\/\/web.archive.org\/web\/20140409065032\/http:\/\/www.tageszeitung.it:80\/2014\/03\/29\/exklusiv-die-umfrage\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ha pubblicato<\/a> i risultati di un sondaggio rappresentativ o (<em>Sonntagsfrage \u2014<\/em> ovvero: \u00abche cosa votereste se domenica si celebrassero le elezioni?\u00bb) per cercare di capire se e come gli elettori sanzionerebbero il comportamento dei politici nel cosiddetto \u00abscandalo pensionistico\u00bb.<\/p>\n<p>Pi\u00f9 che il risultato stesso del sondaggio \u00e8 interessante come viene recepito dai media, soprattutto se paragonato al comportamento <a title=\"56.395.\" href=\"http:\/\/www.brennerbasisdemokratie.eu\/?p=18119\">(a dir poco scettico e distanziato)<\/a> che hanno tenuto nei confronti del sondaggio di <em>S\u00fcd-Tiroler Freiheit<\/em> sulla secessione.<\/p>\n<p>Secondo l&#8217;istituto <em>Dr. Gruber &amp; Partner<\/em>, che ha effettuato la rilevazione, la <abbr title=\"S\u00fcdtiroler Volkspartei\">SVP<\/abbr> perderebbe 6,8 punti percentuali (p.p.) rispetto alle ultime elezioni alla Dieta Sudtirolese \u2014 ma perderebbero anche i <em>Freiheitlichen<\/em> (-10,4 p.p)., i <em>Verdi<\/em> (-4 p.p.), <em>S\u00fcd-Tiroler-Freiheit<\/em> (-3,7 p.p.), il <abbr title=\"Partito Democratico\">PD<\/abbr> (-2,1 p.p.) e <em>B\u00fcrgerUnion<\/em> (-1,9 p.p.). Gli unici a guadagnare sarebbero i pentastellati con un&#8217;impennata pari a 9 punti.<\/p>\n<p>Tutti questi dati vengono analizzati e commentati, sia da <em>Tageszeitung<\/em> che <a title=\"Salto: Se si votasse oggi...\" href=\"http:\/\/www.salto.bz\/de\/article\/29032014\/se-si-votasse-oggi-vincerebbe-il-movimento-5-stelle\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">da <em>Salto<\/em><\/a> e <em>Corriere<\/em>, come se fossero \u00abreali\u00bb e senza considerare il potenziale errore (la cosiddetta <em>deviazione standard)<\/em> indicata da <em>Dr. Gruber &amp; Partner<\/em> nella misura di ben \u00b13,48 punti. Che cosa significa? \u2014 In parole povere vuol dire che fra il valore minimo realistico e quello massimo pu\u00f2 sussistere una forbice massima di quasi sette punti percentuali, dovuti alla dimensione del campione (700 intervistati). A questa forbice andrebbero aggiunte altre possibili fonti di errore, come la mancata risposta, le risposte non veritiere o eventuali imprecisioni dovute all&#8217;incomprensione della domanda o alla sua formulazione poco chiara e suggestiva.<\/p>\n<p>Tutto ci\u00f2, aggiunto al fatto che n\u00e9 <em>Tageszeitung<\/em>, n\u00e9 <em>Salto<\/em> sanno distinguere fra percentuale (%) e punti percentuali (p.p.), la dice lunga sulla capacit\u00e0 (di auto-)critica dei media.<\/p>\n<h6><strong>Due pesi e due misure<\/strong><\/h6>\n<p>Ma non \u00e8 tutto: Infatti nel caso del sondaggio \u2018secessionista\u2019 di <em>S\u00fcd-Tiroler Freiheit<\/em> praticamente tutti i media hanno constatato come i dati non fossero sicuri e verificabili. Ebbene: premesso che esistono tecniche sondaggistiche molto affidabili, anche i sondaggi telefonici (a campione rappresentativo) come quello effettuato da <em>Dr. Gruber &amp; Partner<\/em> non sono per nulla pi\u00f9 \u00absicuri\u00bb di quel che fu il sondaggio (non rappresentativo) di <em>S\u00fcd-Tiroler Freiheit.<\/em> In entrambi i casi \u00e8 necessaria una buona dose di fiducia (nell&#8217;istituto di ricerca e, rispettivamente, nel partito organizzatore del sondaggio), perch\u00e9 in sostanza potrebbero essersi inventati i risultati. Di sana pianta.<\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; text-transform: uppercase;\">C\u00ebla enghe:<\/span><\/strong> <a title=\"Faktencheck: Dr. Gruber und die Frauen.\" href=\"http:\/\/www.brennerbasisdemokratie.eu\/?p=15329\"><code>01<\/code><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Il quotidiano sudtirolese Tageszeitung ieri ha pubblicato i risultati di un sondaggio rappresentativ o (Sonntagsfrage \u2014 ovvero: \u00abche cosa votereste se domenica si celebrassero le elezioni?\u00bb) per cercare di capire se e come gli elettori sanzionerebbero il comportamento dei politici nel cosiddetto \u00abscandalo pensionistico\u00bb. Pi\u00f9 che il risultato stesso del sondaggio \u00e8 interessante come viene [&hellip;]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-18621","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-allgemein","entity-5sb","entity-burgerunion","entity-freiheitliche","entity-pd","entity-stf","entity-svp","entity-verc","issue-medienkritik","issue-stf-befragung","location-sudtirolo","language-italiano","medium-corriere","medium-salto","medium-taz","topic-medien","topic-statistik"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Sonntagsfrage: Alcune considerazioni. - BBD<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.brennerbasisdemokratie.eu\/?p=18621\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Sonntagsfrage: Alcune considerazioni. - BBD\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Il quotidiano sudtirolese Tageszeitung ieri ha pubblicato i risultati di un sondaggio rappresentativ o (Sonntagsfrage \u2014 ovvero: \u00abche cosa votereste se domenica si celebrassero le elezioni?\u00bb) per cercare di capire se e come gli elettori sanzionerebbero il comportamento dei politici nel cosiddetto \u00abscandalo pensionistico\u00bb. 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